In 2002, Donald Rumsfeld was mocked for his “known unknowns” speech. But decades later, leadership experts from The Open University and Lancaster University are proving him right. In a world defined by radical uncertainty, the most dangerous thing a leader can do is pretend to be “heroically omniscient.”
The research suggests that a state of “unknowingness,” the conscious awareness and acceptance that complete knowledge is impossible, is actually a superpower for modern organizations.
The ‘Heroic Leader’ Trap
When we assume a leader (whether a CEO or a head teacher) must have all the answers, two things happen:
- Impossible Pressure: It places an unsustainable burden on the leader to master every complexity.
- Organization-Wide Disempowerment: If staff believe the leader has the “right” answer, they stop looking for their own solutions. Innovation dies because the team waits for a top-down command that may never come.
Case Study: Forestry England and the ‘Impossibility’ of Choice
Researchers studied Forestry England, an organization that manages a paradox: they must sell timber (commercial) while protecting wildlife and public access (environmental). Often, these goals are in direct conflict.
- You cannot harvest timber without disrupting ground-nesting birds.
- You cannot build trails for the public without disturbing the forest.
- Government policies often demand conflicting outcomes for the same piece of land.
How ‘Unknowingness’ Drives Success
Because there is often no “universally right” way to move forward, Forestry England abandoned the top-down model. Instead, they accept uncertainty to unlock three key benefits:
- Distributed Leadership: in the context,when the senior execs admitted they didn’t have the perfect solution; leadership was spread across the organization. Local staff were empowered to make decisions based on their specific context.
- Increased Capacity: When “unknowingness” is accepted, more people step up. Then the organization’s total leadership capacity grows because decision-making isn’t a bottleneck at the top.
- Better Navigating Complexity: By accepting that a decision can be right and wrong at the same time, the organization remains agile enough to pivot when conditions change.
The Bottom Line
Whether you are managing a forest or a tech firm, you are dealing with “unknown unknowns.” Accepting that you cannot always make the “right” decision isn’t a sign of weakness; it’s a prerequisite for building a resilient, empowered team
